NEWS ANALYSIS: Trump and Kim’s War of Words Nothing More Than Posturing Bluster
Donald Trump’s Twitter posts are something else. That’s been established already, to the point where it’s become the source for memes, outrage, and the like. People interpret his tweets from their own perspectives, even if the tweet was meant to be something positive.
To be fair, Trump’s most recent post regarding North Korea wasn’t really positive or negative, it was just a general statement about North Korea’s political situation and how their government “won’t be around much longer” if their Foreign Minister echoes the war mongering of his chairman, Kim Jong Un.
Knowing how tight Kim’s grip on North Korea is at the moment, that probably will not happen any time soon, but our president probably didn’t know that detail. That probably says a lot about him, but never mind that.
North Korea was already uppity about President Trump calling their supreme leader the “Rocket Man” in his recent address to the United Nations, but this tweet sent them over the edge, with their Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho, calling the tweet a “declaration of war.” It’s pretty hard to see Twitter beef result in a nuclear holocaust, but it’s not completely unreasonable to see that it could happen.
While North Korea isn’t sending missiles to the West Coast, they are making use of that supposed declaration of war. As stated by Ri, “Since the United States declared war on our country, we will have every right to make countermeasures, including the right to shoot down the United States’ strategic bombers even when they’re not yet inside the airspace border of our country.” Admittedly, this is a terrifying prospect. While nothing has happened yet, and likely won’t happen, there is a possibility of some skirmish.
Of course, the Chinese are still getting fed up with their little buffer state and probably won’t end up supporting them if a war breaks out, unless the U.S. attacks first. This situation will probably end like the last few dozen disputes with North Korea: threats with a few sanctions and more threats for the next couple of months. That’s how North Korea acts, and that’s how they will continue to act until Kim dies and some other despot takes over, or the country collapses all together.
The fact that he can keep prodding the Western powers with these threats and still stay in power says much about his political prowess. While calling him a good leader is a stretch, it can be said that he is an expert at his craft. Since most reasonable leaders do not want to risk nuclear Armageddon, he can just keep kicking up a fuss and the most Kim will get is a slap on the wrist and a few military drills down south.
The cult of personality that he and his family before him has built over 50 years and the fact he gives out just enough power to his underlings so that they’ll do what he wants without fear of revolution is the biggest factor in his success. He can essentially do what he wants to do until someone in Washington or Beijing gets tired of his childish antics and decides to turn Pyongyang into a crater. Until that day, it’s back to watching North Korea take a Twitter post way too seriously.
In short, nothing will come of this “declaration of war.” People that think anything will happen clearly haven’t been paying attention to the last few hundred times Kim started something, even though this time it was technically Trump who started the latest round of posturing bluster.
Regardless, nuclear war will not be happening anytime soon. The only way anything will come up is if a border incident gets out of hand, but other than that, the military drills and the posturing from North Korea means nothing, except for the fact that the world still has to have Kim in it.
Gary • Oct 6, 2017 at 8:24 pm
Well said Cameron! Clearly you’ve given this balanced opinion a lot of thought! Thanks for sharing with your readers!
Gary Anderson MScEd